Page 36 - Vol 33 Issue 34 2021

Winter is Coming
energy Insight

Winter
Winter

is Coming

By Kiram Tadesse

he second filling phase of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) is set to start from around July. This,
Ta much anticipated and hence inevitable filling of the dam’s reservoir, is also ushered by military manoeuvre
ever seen in the region, which conceivably has potential of shaking the fragile East African region. The roar is
particularly manifested in Cairo’s latest aggressive move to augment its strategic ties in the region with the aim
of building a new alliance. As of late May 2021, Egypt had entered defence pacts with four East African countries.

The inking of such agreements started in March Eagles 1” and “Nile Eagles 2” in March and April countries in the region can reflect the process of
with Sudan followed by Uganda and Burundi 2021 followed by “Guardians of the Nile” in May the formation of the future.
in April and the latest being with Kenya. The 2021. Part of Cairo’s oath making effort in the Horn
overall objective attached to these pacts came Amid renewed tensions on GERD such military is also President Abdel-Fattah El-Sisi recent visit
in the text of dealing with “common challenges partnerships have an implication imposing to Djibouti. It was the first by the country’s leader
and threats to national security, other times put Cairo’s desire to proactively manage changes since Djibouti was declared independent in 1977.
as, for matters of mutual benefit,” “intelligence in the hierarchy of the East African order. The Sisi’s office said in a statement same day of the
exchange,” and “joint military drill.” new alliance has thus a potential to change the visit that Sisi and Djiboutian President Ismail
The latest nuptial between Egypt and Sudan outlines of the existing regional order, sponsoring Omar Guelleh have agreed that the GERD should
could have provoked the immediate neighbour contradictory tendencies of its future aspirations be filled and operated according to what it said “a
Ethiopia whose border dispute with Sudan is linked to Nile water use and development, as well fair and binding legal agreement.” The statement
yet unresolved. In this case, the pact between as influencing the dynamics of the development said such agreement “could maintain regional
the former has reached to joint areal exercises. of the diplomatic and military spheres as stability and preserve the interests of all parties”.
Accordingly, they have launched several joint components of the system of regional alliances. The notion of regional stability aligns to Sisi’s
military drills since November 2020 dubbed “Nile Therefore, the military cooperation with many earlier threats of destabilizing the region if Ethio-

36 | AFRICAN POWER Mining & Oil Review Vol33 Issue 34 2021