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Innovation model. Reasons for this are: for either an original idea or a mutation of 5 5. Copycats enter
the residential model, the end user needs another idea. Original ideas are, as previously Rapidly or not so rapidly depending on
an appropriate roof or adjacent land, needs noted, extremely rare, are unique and should whether the trend is hardware or software
to own the roof or adjacent land, and there be nurtured and treasured if only for all the and where it is in its development timeline
must be no other roadblocks to adoption. For mutant ideas the original will spawn.The and how easy it is to copy — copycats
example, a communal roof (condo complexes) following is a Trend Lifecycle Model, useful enter. At this point Twitter, Instagram, all
is a barrier to adoption. for anyone looking to enter the complex, online magazines and conferences are
confounding, thrilling, sometimes agonizing inundated.
solar industry:
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Affordability is a barrier to 1. Idea, original or a mutation of another 6. Blanketing the market
a. The market noise level is deafening
adoption. The residential solar 1 idea b. At this point much depends on product
lease ameliorated (to an extent) the Someone, somewhere has a notion and differentiation and who reaches the
affordability barrier but did so only takes the time to think the idea through market first
if the homeowner qualified for the and develop a commercial concept c. Conferences catch on to the trend and
lease. The residential solar lease 2. Pioneering the market shift content to it
2
is also, in general, more expensive An attempt to find interest (money, sales) 7. Market attention deficit
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long term than system ownership. is bravely (and this is truly brave) made as a. Too many products/services of the same
the new company ventures into an area type are launching announcements also
that is either completely different or just of the same type and hype accelerates
The point is that while a person might want different enough. b. The market is highly confused and its
to be an innovator or early adopter of a solar 3. Social Media climbing attention wanders
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PV system, it may not be possible for them to The idea catches social media interest c. Market boredom sets in
adopt. That is, someone can be an innovator primarily through smart marketing and d. Twitter, Instagram, et all see a decline
and an early adopter in his/her heart and at often through the unfortunate use of of interest in the trend
the same time be unable to act on their early- announcements. It is worth noting here 8. Revenue potholes
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adopter nature. that some announcements are just to a. Price becomes the tipping point and
Into the Fray a Trend Lifecycle Model create awareness and are not really depending on the product, competitors
begin undercutting each other
announcing anything.
Models provide useful guides for entering 4. Word of mouth frenzy b. Margins fall and yet all entrants claim
highly complex markets, and rigid adherence 4 Twitter, Instagram, et al catch on and the success
to any model will often prove frustrating. That idea officially begins to trend. This often 9. Trend fadeout
is… models behave only as well as the inputs happens whether or not the idea (now a 9 a. The market yawns and turns elsewhere
to them and users need to be willing to adjust. trend) is actually viable — if nothing else b. Twitter, Instagram, et al, abandon
Trends — any trend — begin with an idea, at least some excitement trends the trend — more or less, essentially
Twitter, Instagram, et al bookmark the
trend and will return to it to either
announce its return to viability or ask
why it was ever a thing at all
10. Survival of the best funded or most well-
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thought out or the future direction or most
stubborn or all of the above
Products/technologies/services that serve
a need and/or push progress forward
survive as long as the company has the
money to do so
Concerning number 10, the solar PV industry
is not necessarily the best funded but its
funding never seems to completely dry up; it is
a long-lived highly technical industry filled with
innovations and innovators all building on each
other’s work. It is the future direction, and it
is filled with extremely stubborn participants.
Solar is not a trend and it will survive. (Courtesy
of renewableEnergyWorld.com)
Paula Mints Founder/Chief Market Research
Analyst
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AFRICAN POWER Mining & Oil Review Vol 21, Issue 20, 2017 | 31