Page 30 - Apmor 2018

energy insight

THE SOLAR UNDERGROUND:

The Lifecycle of a Trend

By Paula Mints

of hybrid seed corn by Iowa farmers. Marketing contact) PV cell technology is not a new idea.
managers everywhere owe a debt of thanks PERC was developed two decades ago and
to Dr. Ryan and Dr. Gross and everyone owes is now crawling through its adoption cycle
a debt of thanks to Adam Smith, who owes a whatever that cycle may be. In terms of PERC,
debt of thanks to many others. end users and other module buyers are not
on its adoption curve — cell and module
The adoption curve offers a base for manufacturers are on the PERC adoption curve
understanding how individuals within a and this adoption curve relates more directly
market may — and only may — behave. The to the work of Ryan and Gross at Iowa State
marketplace is a complex arena filled with University than it does to Rogers’ Diffusion of
competing interests and motivations and Innovation model though, they are related.
overrun with noise — announcements, articles This is because the Diffusion of Innovation
that are really marketing instruments and model is most relevant to consumers (end
other attempts to grab and influence consumer users) and the work of Ryan and Gross is most
attention end up confusing the landscape. relevant to producers.
Think of it as a daycare center with 20 four-
year-old children vying for attention and then New Sells Even When It Is Not New
Paula Mints multiply this by 1,000. The solar industry is not really inundated by new
In terms of the solar industry, many people ideas and it is overrun with announcements
do not own their own roof so cannot be about things that are not particularly new
here are few original ideas for new an innovator, early adopter, early or late and by hyped trends that are more trope than
technologies, products and/or services. majority or a laggard until a business model trend.
TMost of what is termed new is a mutation or societal change comes along to allow them Solar is also a highly innovative industry
of an idea, which itself is a mutation of an idea to participate. The community solar business where ideas ebb and flow, and science and
all the way back to the original discovery or model allows people who do not own their engineering articulates, improves, and designs
light bulb moment. Basically, there is not much own roof and who are early adopters in their and where the community of ideas thrives.
that is new, or, put another way, that deserves hearts to, well, adopt.
to be called new. For example, every time a For example, PERC (passivated emitter rear
contact) PV cell technology is not a new idea.
company releases a new smart phone design New Sells Even When It Is Not New PERC was developed two decades ago and
it is releasing an update of an update on top of The solar industry is not really inundated by new is now crawling through its adoption cycle
an update with the original being a marriage ideas and it is overrun with announcements whatever that cycle may be. In terms of PERC,
between a computer and telephone (these about things that are not particularly new end users and other module buyers are not
days the quaint landline). and by hyped trends that are more trope than on its adoption curve — cell and module
In the solar industry, modules with more cells trend. manufacturers are on the PERC adoption curve
(72+) are not new, shingles and tiles are not and this adoption curve relates more directly
new, smart modules are not new. All are form to the work of Ryan and Gross at Iowa State
factor advancements (or not) based on ideas Solar is also a highly innovative University than it does to Rogers’ Diffusion of
that are decades old and that trace back to the industry where ideas ebb and Innovation model though, they are related.
discovery of the photovoltaic effect by physicist flow, and science and engineering This is because the Diffusion of Innovation
Alexander Edmond Becquerel in 1839. articulates, improves, and designs model is most relevant to consumers (end
users) and the work of Ryan and Gross is most
Technologies/products/services rise from the and where the community of ideas relevant to producers.
community of ideas all starting somewhere thrives.
and building on each other. Everything else is Back to Adoption
marketing. Consumers of electricity do not fall easily
Solar is also a highly innovative industry
Even Everett M. Rogers’ Diffusion of Innovations where ideas ebb and flow, and science and into the Diffusion of Innovation model. This
model, on which many a marketing plan is engineering articulates, improves, and designs is because solar is a need and consumers (in
based, has its roots in the research of Iowa and where the community of ideas thrives. most cases) rent their electricity from a utility.
State University sociologists Bryce Ryan and Consumers of solar generated electricity
Neal Gross who in 1943 studied the adoption For example, PERC (passivated emitter rear also do not fall easily into the Diffusion of

30 | AFRICAN POWER Mining & Oil Review Vol 21, Issue 20, 2017